The last time I checked, Alberto Contador was at 6/4 'on' to win le Tour - if you stake 6 euros and he wins, they'll give you 4 plus your 6 stake back; a total of 10 euros. You don't need to be a mathematician to work out that to get rich off a Bert Tour win, you'd need to lay one big wedge on the counter. This weekend's Primavera is a whole different story though - picking a winner is a much more difficult task.
The Primavera is a different proposition, though - favourite Boonen is at 7/1 and your same 6 euros on Tomeke, rather than Bert would bring you 48 in return, if he wins - 7 x 6 plus your 6 stake.
With journos and fans, the stakes are only 'bragging rights' as Pez would say; 'well, I did say on Friday night, that he'd win it!' - but to the bookies it's making sure there's food on the table.
That's why they don't often get it wrong.
When you compare the Boonen odds to those of Contador, they tell a story - a Grand Tour result is much easier to predict than a Classic. At this moment, unless someone 'does a Riis,' it's unlikely that anyone can beat Contador to win the Tour and there are a maximum of perhaps six riders who can win the Giro and Vuelta.
The Primavera is different, anything can happen in those helter skelter last few kilometres, in the last ten years, whilst seven editions have ended in a sprint; Cav, Freire (twice), Ale, Cipo, and Zabel (twice) - three haven't; Cancellara, Pippo, and Bettini.
Tom Boonen 7/1
Boonen isn't perhaps fastest of the current crop of finishers, but his sprint is still as strong after 300 kilometres as it is after 200; he's lost weight - that Cipressa is a killer - but there's only a 70% chance that it'll be a sprint. I can't argue with the bookies on this one, though - Boonen is the man, big, strong, fast, lean and highly motivated; with his first Italian victory in Tirreno to underscore all of the aforementioned.
For sure, Roubaix is the big one for him; but the last 'true' Belgian win here was Fons De Wolf in 1981 (Tchmil? in '99? Viktor and me are more Belgian than he is) he'd love to add a third monument to his palmares and win this most beautiful of races.
Jered: I think this could be Boonen's year for Sanremo, though I say that with a bit of trepidation, and he's not my favorite to win. I will never be able to wholeheartedly throw my vote to Boonen in a bunch sprint. There are without question faster riders in the bunch. Can I just say that he's going to win a Monument in the next month? That's easier.
Edvald Boasson Hagen 8/1
Second fave, on 8/1 is Boasson Hagen; hugely talented, we've been watching him since his Joker Bianchi days, winning UCI races at a very tender age - and this year he's already showed what he's capable off; breakaways, time trials and that blanket finish win in Tirreno was the last dollop of icing on the cake.
On the down side, there's the distance - almost 300 kilometres - and whilst it's not impossible to win the Primavera at your first attempt - ask Cav - there's so much to learn. But like Dario Cioni says; 'everything he does this year is an investment for the future - he'll win this race, one day.' I agree, but not this Saturday.
Jered: I'm with Ed on this one. Boasson Hagen is going to win close to everything before he's through, but I don't think that's going to start with Sanremo this weekend.
Mark Cavendish 10/1
Mark Cavendish, brash, fearless, driven and fastest of them all. But it's not been a good winter for the '09 winner; a change of partner doesn't come without emotional stress and everyone knows how draining dental problems can be - at 10/1 the bookies haven't written him off and quoting Dario again; 'he's a very focussed rider!' But it's impossible that he's at his best; and only the best of the best can win beside the Ligurian on Saturday afternoon.
Jered: I'm scared to say it, but maybe everything is going just fine for Cavendish. For a team like HTC-Columbia, wouldn't they give the nod to Greipel if something were truly amiss? If everything really is fine and dandy with Cavendish, then we've got your winner right here. I'm going with Cavendish.
Daniele Bennati 11/1
At 11/1 we have 'Benna' - Daniele Bennati - the sad palmares website which I inhabit lists 51 victories for him, including stages in the Giro, Tour and Vuelta - 2009 wasn't his best year, but he's looking sharp in 2010 with victories in Oman and Tirreno. Personally, I don't think he has the 'grinta' to dig deeper than ever before at the end of 300 K but I'd place him top ten in the heaving mass at the death.
Jered: Nah.
Oscar Freire 11/1
Oscar Freire - there's not much in the way of sprinters' races that the ever-smiling man from Torrelavega hasn't won; including three world titles and two Primaveras. It's tempting to say that Old Father Time may be catching up with him, but with three wins in 2010 already, it wouldn't be true. He has the experience, he has the grinta - but at 11/1 the bookies don't think he can make it a treble. If he does, I'd be surprised, but in cycling one gets lots of surprises - and I wouldn't be disappointed.
Jered: My sentimental favorite. He's looking better than he has in a couple of years. For a rider on the tail end of his career, Oscar Freire is looking mighty fast. He has always been able to climb capably and sprint with the best...plus he's going well right now. What more can you ask for? He's not the type of rider that calls for favorite status though. He's always lurking, always there, always ready to turn on his final 100m afterburners. I think a podium is in the cards, maybe the magic #3.
Philippe Gilbert 12/1
If I was a gambling man, I'd put a few euros on the bookies 12/1 choice - Philippe Gilbert. The autumn of 2009 showed us that this is a man who can do it all - and don't forget that he's been on the podium here, in 2008, and the previous year was clear on the descent of the Poggio, with Ricco.
Jered: I'd like to say yes to a breakaway with Pippo and Philippe, but I don't get the feeling that this is the year for it. I've been wrong way too many times to count though. I think the P+P show will get rolling up north in Belgium next week.
Alessandro Petacchi 12/1
Also at a dozen to one is the Ale Jet; there's no doubting the big man from La Spezia's talent - he's been first to San Remo before. But on the 'best of the best' principle, he can't win - everything has to perfect leading in to the Primavera and his hitting the deck in training will have affected his mind as well as his form.
Jered: He's not the dominant sprinter he once was, and it was only an Ale-Jet at the top of his game that was able to win it. I'd love to see him get #2 just to watch him bawl in utter happiness, but I don't think he's going to do it.
Those are the bookies' "luck seven."
Pippo? 17/1; Cancellara? 18/1; Tyler? 22/1, but hey! want a real tip? Greg Henderson at 65/1 - that has to be worth the small change from your pocket?
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